Lesson learned: native wins, HTML loses

February 25, 2011

We are now witnessing the coming of a new era. 

The internet without the web.

Read it again.

The holy grail of the internet developers, the only multi-platform technology than can reliably run everywhere, including them shiny iOS devices – HTML (and HTML5 in particular) is losing battle against a bunch of proprietary SDKs like Objective C, Java ME, and Silverlight. You can’t even call these a programming language!

The mobile development is all the rage now, and apparently for many years to come. The number of mobile devices is going through the roof and all of a sudden, a tablet is going to be enough of a computer for 95% of the users. And if you develop for mobile, you don’t want HTML5 for many reasons:

– if you need access to camera, notifications, or run in the background;

– if you need the app to look good and have decent performance;

– if you need to make money from the app, like charge for it;

– if you need the users to somehow find you app.

Right now, almost any HTML mobile app is a joke comparing to its native counterpart. And because the mobile apps are not scarce (they stopped counting the AppStore when it reached 400,000) the users will choose only the best apps with the best user experience. If you read it as “the users will choose only the native apps” you read it right.

Funny enough, Google, which is supposed to push HTML5 the most is not doing the job very well. Their Chrome OS, built around HTML5 and web apps is virtually non-existent. While Android is very alive and is flourishing with native apps at accelerating pace.

So, when people stop buying computers and stop going to the web sites from their mobile devices, the web will again become a hacker thing. Remember Gopher? Look it up here, if you haven’t ever seen it.



Lesson learned: iPad wins

February 14, 2011

It was a year ago when people started making funny jokes about the iPad. Then the device showed up in stores and turned out to be a good one. People loved our MobileNoter for iPad, and it helped our sales a lot. But more interesting is that Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010.

That’s huge for a market created overnight, out of nowhere.

Even more interesting are analysts predictions for iPad sales in 2010. Remember, these are high paid analysts, whose insights are taken into account by top investment banks in the worlds (figures are in millions):

– David Bailey, Goldman Sachs           6.2

– Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley     6.0

– Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros.              5.0

– Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets   5.0

– Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital           2.9

– Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank       2.0

– Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch               1.2

– Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel             1.1

– Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer             1.1

Analysts data are taken from here. It goes to show how disruptive this Apple’s shiny tablet turned out to be. Apparently, more surprises to come. Apple is about to unveil iPad 2 while there are still no worthy competitors out there for the old iPad.