This is the chart from IDC with the recent predictions about iPad market share, which everyone has been talking about. Many dismiss it as a total crap, because it assumes that the tablet market (which includes sub-tablets like Kindle Fire) will only double in 4 years. To put it into perspective, take a look into the growth from 2010 to 2011.
However, another big reason this forecast is wrong is the impact Wintel. First, Intel will introduce their 22nm Atom chips this year, and they will start appearing in smartphones and tablets. Remember Motorola 68000 family? PowerPC G family? Probably not. That’s because Apple stopped using them and replaced with Intel chips. Cell processor? Say good buy to it, because new Sony PlayStation will use an x86 chip. That’s pretty much what’s going to happen with ARM eventually. Second, Microsoft is going to have its Windows 8 ready and start pushing it to the new phones and tablets. While anyone can theoretically take Intel chips and create new tablets for any OS, it’s been always Windows that Intel favored.
So, Intel will provide a hardware platform, Microsoft will provide a tablet-optimized OS, is there going to be anybody willing to buy Wintel tablets? Enterprises. They respected RIM for secure devices, but it’s a given that it has no future. They don’t like iPads because it’s an environment totally controlled by Apple. They hate Android because it is completely uncontrolled and unmanaged. Everyone is used to having a Microsoft-based infrastructure. “You can’t get fired for buying from Microsoft” is the enterprise mantra our days.