Windows 8 adoption rate is poor

March 10, 2013

Windows 8 vs Vista adoption numbersZDNet created a nice graph comparing Windows 8 adoption rate with that of Windows Vista. If the figures are true, they spell big trouble. Windows Vista was far from being popular comparing to other Windows OSes, but  Windows 8 is setting a new record of unpopularity. ZDNet offers a list of five reasons about what’s wrong with Windows 8. However, it all boils down to a single issue: the Intel based PCs is the core Windows 8 market and Windows 8 doesn’t offer enough innovation for that market. Instead, it breaks good things with the new interface.

More interesting numbers to come out in the nearest months for sure.

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Wintel cliff

December 15, 2012

wintel share of the marketThe new Mary Meeker’s Presentation On The State Of The Web contains a slide that’s basically a snapshot of a gigantic landslide.

It took Microsoft 10 years to go from zero to 80% of the market and it will take even fewer years to go from 95% to 15% or less.

 

 


iPad market share

April 15, 2012

This is the chart from IDC with the recent predictions about iPad market share, which everyone has been talking about. Many dismiss it as a total crap, because it assumes that the tablet market (which includes sub-tablets like Kindle Fire) will only double in 4 years. To put it into perspective, take a look into the growth from 2010 to 2011.

However, another big reason this forecast is wrong is the impact Wintel. First, Intel will introduce their 22nm Atom chips this year, and they will start appearing in smartphones and tablets. Remember Motorola 68000 family? PowerPC G family? Probably not. That’s because Apple stopped using them and replaced with Intel chips. Cell processor? Say good buy to it, because new Sony PlayStation will use an x86 chip. That’s pretty much what’s going to happen with ARM eventually. Second, Microsoft is going to have its Windows 8 ready and start pushing it to the new phones and tablets. While anyone can theoretically take Intel chips and create new tablets for any OS, it’s been always Windows that Intel favored.

So, Intel will provide a hardware platform, Microsoft will provide a tablet-optimized OS, is there going to be anybody willing to buy Wintel tablets? Enterprises. They respected RIM for secure devices, but it’s a given that it has no future. They don’t like iPads because it’s an environment totally controlled by Apple. They hate Android because it is completely uncontrolled and unmanaged. Everyone is used to having a Microsoft-based infrastructure. “You can’t get fired for buying from Microsoft” is the enterprise mantra our days.

 


Funware Development sold

February 5, 2012

Funware Development is a small startup I started a year and a half ago to develop games for social networks. A few weeks ago I pulled the plug and sold it to a company from Moscow.

Funware Development was a really lean startup. So lean that the max number of employees working for it (myself excluded because I didn’t get salary) was 3. Nevertheless, we delivered over 10 games and applications to Odnoklassniki, Moi Mir and VKontakte social networks. The total number of installations of these apps is just under 14 millions. Several months ago we were among the top 20 companies (for Russian social networks) based on these numbers. Despite the large number of users, the monetization didn’t go well, and eventually it became clear that the thing just wasn’t worth the trouble. If you are interested in numbers, the total revenue (including the sale of the company) was about $26K with all the costs totaling in about $26K. That’s right, the total profit over the startup’s life is about zero. It’s not as bad as it sounds, because most startups don’t even recover the money that were spent on them.

We surely made many mistakes along the way, and it is clear that we could really make it work. The hindsight is always 20/20 though. I’ve learned so many new things that no amount of reading other people’s blogs could deliver. Lessons learned, moving on.

The picture above is an actual screenshot from the site before I took it down.


MobileNoter in 2011

January 15, 2012

2011 was a monster year for MobileNoter. We didn’t get to our goal of 100,000 customers by the end of 2011, but still we are several tens of thousands users in. If you decide to compare these numbers to other services, like Evernote or Catch, remember that these are paying customers we are talking about, not people who download free stuff with the intention of never paying. The 100,000 customers milestone is postponed to the year of 2012 now.

Microsoft released Onenote for iPhone in January and then Onenote for iPad in December 2011. What’s good about these releases: first, they determined the price and trial terms. It will definitely influence our decisions in the future. Second, their release allowed us to differentiate our product from theirs pretty easily. Microsoft provides basic access to their Skydrive stored notes, which is totally free for everyone except power users. MobileNoter gives you full access to the notes stored on Skydrive, Dropbox, your computer, while preserving all graphics, drawings, and provides complete Onenote for Windows experience on the mobile devices. The release of Onenote for iOS from Microsoft has some positive and negative impact on us. Overall, it is a somewhat neutral event.

Android was our top platform in 2011. The sales of MobileNoter for Android went from zero to more than that of for iOS during the year. Two factors helped: exceptionally great releases of MobileNoter for Android and skyrocketing growth of the platform itself. Even MobileNoter sales in Amazon Appstore showed significant growth despite a slow start. The Kindle Fire is to thank for this.

We expect to have some great releases of MobileNoter of iOS in 2012, so this platform is not to be ignored. The dominance of iOS over Android is however evaporating and soon it will be gone forever, as more as more developers find their income from Android growing over that of from iOS.

Our plans for BlackBerry lost some priority as the year of 2011 clearly demonstrated that the platform is struggling to survive. If the enterprise mobile users move to Android/Windows 8 and leave RIM products, then those Blackberries may never see a native MobileNoter and thus receive access to their Onenote notes.

Finally, 2011 was the year when MobileNoter as a startup reached several important financial milestones. If you ever ran a startup, you know what I’m talking about. We never doubted that the day would come, but it’s nice to actually experience it.

 

 


Microsoft money machine

December 4, 2011

Just in case you wonder where Microsoft takes all that money, here is its business split up, brought by Business Insider. These are mostly not official numbers, just analytical estimates:

Windows (desktop)

$19.0B

Office

$15.0B

The Xbox and all its related businesses

$8.3B

Windows Server

$6.0B

SQL Server database software

$3-4.0B

Online advertising on Bing (including Yahoo Search), MSN, and other properties

$2.3B

Exchange Server

Over $2.2B

SharePoint, collaboration and portals

Over $1.5B

Skype

$1.2B

Dynamics, CRM and accounting software

$1.1B

Visual Studio, software development tools

Over $1.0B

System Center, server management software

Over $1.0B


Kindle Fire is a firestarter

November 27, 2011

Amazon released their Kindle Fire only about a week ago, but the sales our MobileNoter in Amazon AppStore have exploded. They are still not as big as those of the Apple’s or Google’s appstores, but an increase by 5 times is a nice thing. Amazon AppStore is definitely getting some traction after all. That’s why we are going to release our HD version into Amazon – it should be approved any day now. Also, we are going to do an update to our Android versions of MobileNoter with some really nice features in December this year.